TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the performance gap between Atlanta and Toronto in their scheduled MLS soccer match on Nov 1, 2026. It focuses on the margin of victory, determining whether either team secures a decisive win by a specific number of goals. The outcome hinges purely on regular-time scoring without considering extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential thresholds for the Atlanta vs Toronto MLS match scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, played after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcome conditions are defined: Atlanta winning by more than 2.5 goals, Atlanta winning by more than 1.5 goals, Toronto winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Toronto winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each condition independently determines a 'Yes' resolution if met during regular time. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The resolution depends solely on the final score within the standard match duration, with no consideration for post-regulation proceedings.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of many traders rather than relying on a single bookmaker's assessment. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes move faster to incorporate breaking news, while this market relies on traders actively adjusting their positions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information available to each group and varying risk appetites. It’s common to see initial differences that narrow as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final point spread of the Atlanta versus Toronto game. The winning outcome will be determined by which team covers the spread as officially recorded by sports authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching strategies could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games, or even significant media coverage impacting public perception, could also drive price movements. Major upsets in other related games, or even weather conditions potentially affecting game play, could also play a role. Overall team performance and any late-breaking news regarding the teams involved are key signals to watch.