TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market allows participants to speculate on the rushing performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Payouts increase progressively with higher rushing yard totals, creating a tiered reward structure based on actual game results.
Contracts pay based on the rushing yards accumulated by named players in the specified game, using a tiered schedule where each 10-yard increment corresponds to a specific payout value. The payout formula calculates a scaled return using the cubic function of yardage divided by 200, capped at $1.00 for Yes contracts, while No contracts receive the inverse difference from $1.00. Negative yardage results trigger a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All calculations use official game statistics, with payouts determined by rounding mechanisms applied to binned yardage ranges.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the prices here will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher rushing yard total, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of the probability of various outcomes.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official rushing yard totals for the Atlanta versus Tampa Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. The total rushing yards achieved by both teams will be compared to the contract levels offered on Kalshi to determine payouts for traders.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if rain or snow is predicted, could also impact the expected rushing yard totals. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could shift trader sentiment and affect prices. Monitoring these signals closely can help identify potential trading opportunities before Nov 1, 2026.