TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming American football game. The outcome depends on whether designated players meet or exceed certain reception thresholds during the match. The contracts include protection clauses for partial game participation.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected. If a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's opening kickoff, unless the player records the required number of receptions, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event includes full game receptions, including overtime. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. If a significant number of people believe a player will exceed a certain reception total, the price for that outcome will rise, potentially surpassing sportsbook odds. Conversely, if the crowd is skeptical, the price may remain lower. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific player will have a certain number of receptions, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market odds constantly adjust to reflect the latest information and collective beliefs of the traders participating in the market.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official NFL statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could significantly impact expectations for player performance. A key player being ruled out would likely shift volume towards other receiving options. Additionally, late-breaking news about a player’s health or a change in the opposing team’s defensive scheme could also cause substantial price movements in this market as traders react to the new information.