TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the third quarter performance of an upcoming football game between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The outcome depends on the point difference between the two teams during that specific quarter. Only points scored in the third quarter count towards determining the result.
The market resolves based on the point differential between Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the third quarter of their November 1, 2026 game. Multiple thresholds are defined, ranging from Tampa Bay winning by over 1.5 points to over 10.5 points, and similarly for Atlanta. Points scored outside the third quarter are irrelevant. If Atlanta meets any of its specified thresholds, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The same logic applies to Tampa Bay’s markets. All markets share the same secondary rule that only third-quarter points count.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on internal models and may adjust them based on betting action, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective intelligence of prediction market participants. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring. Buyers are expressing confidence in that outcome, driving the price up, while sellers are betting against it, pushing the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news, analysis, and each other's actions, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the Atlanta versus Tampa Bay game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range predicted by the purchased contracts. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive or defensive players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, as well as significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, could also impact the price of contracts in this market.