TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This market identifies the team that wins the second quarter by scoring the most points, with a tie as a possible outcome. The determination is solely based on points scored during that quarter. Only the second quarter's scoring matters for resolution.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points in the second quarter of the November 1, 2026 game between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. If Tampa Bay scores more points, its market resolves to Yes. If Atlanta scores more, its market resolves to Yes. If both teams score the same amount, neither team market resolves to Yes, and the Tie market resolves to Yes. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward this determination.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand from traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a team is more likely to win than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that team will rise, narrowing the gap. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of both types of markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of each contract fluctuates based on the forces of supply and demand. When more traders buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of that outcome. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants, offering a real-time assessment of the potential 2nd quarter winner.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the 2nd quarter of the game will be declared the winner for the purposes of this market. Official game statistics and scores from recognized sports authorities will be used to determine the winning team. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data, ensuring a fair outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance leading up to the game, such as winning or losing streaks, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on game day, or even pre-game analysis from sports commentators, could also impact trading activity. Finally, large volume trades from individual participants can create short-term price fluctuations within this market.