TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 9:31 PM EST
Kalshi
A professional basketball game features two teams competing in the first half where scoring efficiency and defensive stops determine the leading team before halftime. The half consists of two 15-minute quarters.
Markets resolve based on which team leads after the first half of play. Only points scored during the first half count toward resolution. If a game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its scheduled time, markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If a game is cancelled or fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. You might find that this market’s implied probabilities diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes, as they aggregate diverse perspectives and react quickly to relevant developments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the first half. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The market efficiently incorporates available information, making the price a real-time assessment of the potential winner.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will reflect which team is leading at the end of the first half of the game between Atlanta and San Antonio. The official score at halftime will be used to determine the winning team, and that information will be sourced from official league data. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries or changes to starting lineups for either Atlanta or San Antonio would likely cause price movement. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or coaching decisions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, early game performance, such as a team getting off to a hot start, could lead to rapid adjustments in the odds. Public perception and any significant betting patterns observed on Kalshi will also contribute to shifts in the market leading up to the end of the first half.