TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the number of receptions achieved by various Atlanta and New Orleans players in their upcoming matchup. Participants can bet on whether each specified player will reach certain reception thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance.
Each market operates as a scalar betting platform where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per recorded reception up to a maximum of $1.00, while No contracts pay the remainder from $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are capped at 20 receptions per player and are proportional to the holder's position size. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60; eleven receptions would result in a Yes payout of $0.55 and a No payout of $0.45; zero receptions would yield a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All markets resolve based solely on official game statistics, with Kalshi explicitly stating no affiliation with the NFL.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – you may observe convergence or divergence between the two. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets allow participants to trade positions, potentially leading to more dynamic pricing than traditional fixed-odds betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards a different outcome, the price of that contract will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and evolving opinions.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official NFL statistics for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game data, ensuring an objective and transparent process. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual results of the game.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key receivers or quarterbacks, would likely cause substantial shifts in pricing. Changes in weather forecasts, especially conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities of different outcomes. Unexpected player performance in prior games could also influence trader sentiment and move this market.