TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the receiving yards accumulated by specific Atlanta and New Orleans players in an upcoming NFL game. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase linearly with each receiving yard achieved up to a maximum, while 'No' contracts pay the remainder of the contract value if the threshold isn't met.
Each market operates as a scalar betting structure where 'Yes' contracts pay out proportionally based on the receiving yards accumulated by the designated player during the specified NFL game, with a fixed rate of $0.0025 per yard. Payouts are capped at $1.00, corresponding to a maximum of 400 receiving yards. If a player records zero yards, 'Yes' contracts pay $0.00 and 'No' contracts pay the full $1.00. For any yardage between 1 and 400, 'Yes' payouts increase linearly, while 'No' payouts decrease correspondingly, ensuring that the total payout for both 'Yes' and 'No' contracts always sums to $1.00 per contract. The payout structure is proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger absolute payouts while maintaining the same ratio of 'Yes' to 'No' returns as smaller positions.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. While sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, this market aggregates the diverse opinions of informed traders. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing market structures and participant motivations. It’s common to see initial differences, but as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi often converge with those found at sportsbooks, though not always. It's important to compare both to inform your decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds for players in the Atlanta versus New Orleans game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that threshold being reached. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market remains responsive to evolving expectations and provides a real-time assessment of potential outcomes. The market depth and order book are visible on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the Atlanta versus New Orleans game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine which contracts settle in the money. The resolution will be based on the final, official yardage totals for the players involved, as reported by the NFL. Traders holding contracts corresponding to yardage thresholds that are met will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for thresholds that are not met will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers on either the Atlanta or New Orleans teams would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions, could also influence expectations regarding passing yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders re-evaluating their positions, resulting in increased volume and price fluctuations in this market.