TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which player achieves the longest rushing play in an upcoming football game between two teams. It focuses on specific performance metrics for individual players, evaluating whether they reach certain yardage thresholds during the contest. The outcome depends entirely on in-game play and player performance.
The event determines whether either of two named players records a longest rush exceeding their respective yardage thresholds in the specified football game. For each player, if they are active for the game but never take a snap, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves based on the longest rush they record during the game. The markets operate independently, each evaluating its designated player’s performance against its specific threshold. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the likelihood of each player achieving the longest rush. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can provide insights into where the market believes sportsbooks may be over or underestimating probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player, and the price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of that player’s probability of having the longest rush. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi, and reflects the expectations of those trading in this specific market.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt during the game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the outcome of this market. Official NFL statistics will be used to verify the results and determine the winning contract. No further details regarding the verification process will be provided.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could all shift trader sentiment. A key player being ruled out with an injury would likely increase the probability of others, while a favorable matchup for a particular running back could also drive up their price. Unexpected announcements about playing time or offensive schemes could also cause substantial movement in this market as traders adjust their predictions.