TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of specific quarterbacks in a football game between Atlanta and New Orleans. It focuses on how often each quarterback throws interceptions during the match, with different thresholds for resolution.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing interceptions recorded by designated quarterbacks, Tyler Shough and Michael Penix Jr., during the Atlanta vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+) for each quarterback. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during their playing time. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. The governing body's official statistics will be used to determine the outcome, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The closer we get to the event, the more the price will likely reflect the perceived certainty of the outcome, and volume may increase as traders refine their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions in the Atlanta versus New Orleans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the number of interceptions. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health or playing status, changes in weather conditions that might favor passing or running plays, or even adjustments to defensive strategies could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about team injuries or key player matchups could also cause significant movement. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact on the game will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities in this market.