TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific players and teams will exceed designated fantasy point thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market evaluates individual performance based on detailed scoring metrics, including offensive contributions and defensive impacts. Outcomes are determined by comparing actual game statistics to predefined benchmarks.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense units during the full game (including overtime) between Atlanta and New Orleans, scheduled for October 5, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams performances according to precise yardage, touchdown, and other statistical benchmarks. Players who do not participate or lack a published fantasy-point value are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Each market has a unique threshold; if the designated player or team’s defense exceeds their respective threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.'
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from sportsbook odds due to varying information sources and biases. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional polls because traders have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to make informed decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the outcome of the Atlanta vs New Orleans fantasy points total. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective assessment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time estimation of the event's likelihood, based on the aggregated decisions of many individuals.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total fantasy points scored by players from both the Atlanta and New Orleans teams will be tallied based on standard fantasy football scoring rules. The final score will be sourced from official league data and verified against credible public sources. The market will then settle to 100 if the total fantasy points fall within the range defined by the contracts traded, and 0 otherwise.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key players on either the Atlanta or New Orleans teams would be a significant catalyst, as they directly impact potential fantasy point production. Unexpected changes in weather conditions could also affect player performance and, consequently, the market price. News regarding player matchups or coaching strategies could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could lead to movement in this market.