TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 8:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which player will score the first touchdown in the Atlanta versus New Orleans professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives Bijan Robinson a 99.0% probability of scoring first, while Juwan Johnson is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on whether Kendre Miller scores the first touchdown in the Atlanta vs New Orleans Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve following the conclusion of the game on October 6, 2026, and the identification of the first touchdown scorer.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or team scores the first touchdown of the game. If a participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the entire game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other player and team markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for this event.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own information and beliefs. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there's significant public interest. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value if they diverge substantially from the probabilities implied by this market, providing opportunities for arbitrage.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the cost to own one unit of probability for that outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, based on the collective judgment of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player who scores the first touchdown in the Atlanta versus New Orleans game will determine the winning contract. In the event of a tie or other unusual circumstances, the platform will follow established rules to ensure a fair and accurate resolution. The final result will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift probabilities. A key player being ruled out would likely increase the chances of other players, causing their contract prices to rise. Unexpected reports about a player’s health or playing time could also trigger substantial movements. Furthermore, late-breaking news about the opposing team’s defensive capabilities might influence how traders assess the likelihood of different players scoring the first touchdown.