TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:27 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which New Orleans player or defensive unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Atlanta. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game performance.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified New Orleans player or defensive unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once the player takes a snap, the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no New Orleans touchdowns are scored, the 'No New Orleans Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other player-specific markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player and unit markets for the game.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own probabilities. Over time, prediction market prices often become more accurate than traditional odds, as they aggregate diverse perspectives. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by public betting patterns and promotional offers, creating temporary discrepancies. It’s useful to compare both to get a broader view of expectations for the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether New Orleans will score the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price moves based on supply and demand; if more people believe New Orleans will score first, the price of the 'yes' contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine if New Orleans scored the first touchdown in the game against Atlanta. Resolution will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data, ensuring an objective determination of the outcome. The result will be verified against credible public sources to confirm which team reached the endzone first, settling all outstanding contracts accordingly.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players for either team, particularly the New Orleans quarterback or wide receivers, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact expectations for passing plays and scoring opportunities. Game-day reports about team strategies or defensive matchups could also shift the market. Finally, any significant public betting activity or expert analysis predicting a change in scoring dynamics could move the price of this market.