TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 10:23 PM EST
Kalshi
In an upcoming women's professional basketball game between Atlanta and Golden State, bettors can predict which team will lead at the end of the second half of regulation time. The outcome depends solely on performance during that specific half, excluding any overtime periods.
Markets resolve based on which team scores the most points during the specified half of regulation time, excluding overtime. If teams are tied, the 'Tie' outcome wins. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled game concludes within two days; if not played or rescheduled beyond this window, markets resolve at a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the outcome. Often, you'll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional betting markets, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison and identifying potential value in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome comes to pass, making it a dynamic representation of collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the second half will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics and results published by the NBA. Traders holding contracts on the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing team will not. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching decisions could significantly shift expectations. In-game performance during the first half, such as a dominant showing by one team, will also likely impact trading activity. Furthermore, broader NBA news, like trades or suspensions affecting key players, could also cause movement. Unexpected shifts in public sentiment, driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could also play a role in how this market evolves before resolution.