TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 5:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will lead at halftime in an upcoming women's professional basketball game between Atlanta and Golden State. It evaluates performance based solely on points scored during the first half of regulation time, with a separate outcome for a tied score.
The market determines the leader at the end of the first half of regulation in the Atlanta vs. Golden State women's professional basketball game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market corresponds to one of three possible outcomes: Golden State leading, Atlanta leading, or a tie. Resolution depends exclusively on which team has the higher point total at the conclusion of the first half. If the teams are tied, the 'Tie' outcome resolves as the winner. Should the game be postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided it occurs within two days of the original date. If the game is canceled or rescheduled beyond this window, all markets will resolve at a fair price. Points from overtime or any period beyond the first half of regulation do not affect the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit, whereas this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing their belief in each team’s probability of winning the first half. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% chance of the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in their victory. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the team leading at the end of the first half of the Atlanta versus Golden State game will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source, ensuring an objective and verifiable result for all traders in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Late-breaking news regarding player injuries or starting lineups for either the Atlanta or Golden State teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team performance could also play a role. Furthermore, significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by pre-game analysis or expert opinions, can impact trading activity and move the odds. Any information that alters perceptions of each team’s chances of winning the first half has the potential to move this market.