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412,077
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 17, 5:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in a specific quarter of a professional basketball game between Atlanta and Golden State. It tracks performance during a single quarter of play, not the overall game outcome. The resolution depends solely on the points scored by each team in that quarter, with a tie resulting in a distinct outcome.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the third quarter of regulation time in the specified women’s professional basketball game between Atlanta and Golden State. If one team scores more points than the other in that quarter, the corresponding team outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes, and all team outcomes resolve to No. Should the game be postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, provided it occurs within two days of the original date. If the game is canceled or rescheduled beyond this window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored during the specified quarter count toward the outcome, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their analysis, aiming to balance betting action on both sides. This market, however, allows traders to express their own beliefs, and the resulting prices can incorporate a broader range of information and perspectives. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, the price here may move in the opposite direction, representing a different assessment of the probability of each team winning the 3rd quarter.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each team winning the 3rd quarter. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of that outcome. A higher price indicates a greater perceived chance of that team winning. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the 3rd quarter of the Atlanta versus Golden State game will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts for the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for the losing team will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching strategies could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in the first half of the game, or even pre-game reports about team morale, could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of buyers for one team – could quickly move the price, reflecting a change in perceived probability. Real-time game statistics and expert analysis will likely play a role as the game progresses.