TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 4:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will lead after the first quarter of an upcoming women's professional basketball game between Atlanta and Golden State. It covers the specific scenario where either team scores more points than the other in that quarter, or where the quarter ends in a tie.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points in the first quarter of regulation time of the specified Atlanta vs. Golden State women's professional basketball game. If one team scores more points than the other, that team's market resolves to Yes, and the others resolve to No. If both teams score an equal number of points, the Tie market resolves to Yes, and all team-specific markets resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, provided it occurs within two days of the original date. If the game is canceled or rescheduled beyond this window, all markets resolve at a fair price. Only points scored during the specified quarter count toward the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities, particularly as more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to information, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each team winning the first quarter. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific team, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of victory. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the event.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the first quarter of the Atlanta versus Golden State game will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and scoring, as reported by official sources. Traders holding contracts for the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for the losing team will not.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Late-breaking news regarding player injuries or starting lineups for either the Atlanta or Golden State teams would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Pre-game analysis from respected sports analysts and any unexpected changes in public sentiment could also impact trading volume and price movement. Even early scoring plays within the first few minutes of the game could trigger rapid adjustments as traders react to the unfolding events.