TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This prediction group covers various markets related to the MLS soccer game between Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati. Markets include spreads, over/under goals, and both teams to score, both for the entire game and for the first half. These markets allow users to predict the outcome of specific aspects of the match.
More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for October 10 at 7:30 PM ET.
The markets resolve based on the total number of goals scored during the Atlanta vs Cincinnati professional MLS soccer game scheduled for October 10, 2026, counting only goals made in the 90 minutes plus any stoppage time added by the referee at the end of each half. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from all calculations. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the total goals exceed the specified threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals). The thresholds represent incremental increments of scoring activity, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of various goal totals. All markets operate independently, and each has its own resolution criteria tied to the respective goal threshold. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the league governing body, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources driving each. Sportsbooks primarily aim to set lines that balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets reflect the collective belief of informed traders who have skin in the game. This market often demonstrates greater accuracy, especially when a large volume of trading occurs, as it harnesses the wisdom of the crowd. However, sportsbooks may offer different types of wagers not available in this market, and vice versa.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons, including differences in trader demographics, market design, and liquidity. Polymarket currently favors Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5 at 98%, while Kalshi leans toward Will over 1.5 goals be scored?. Each platform attracts a different set of participants with varying expertise and risk tolerance, leading to distinct price discovery processes. Furthermore, the specific rules and fee structures on each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, the observed prices. Volume differences between the two also contribute to price discrepancies.