TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of an upcoming football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that determines the outcome.
These markets resolve based solely on the point difference between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold for the point margin required for resolution. If the New Orleans Saints win the third quarter by exceeding the specified margin—for example, more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points—the corresponding 'Yes' outcome is triggered. Conversely, if the Atlanta Falcons secure a third-quarter victory with a margin exceeding the set threshold—such as more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points—the respective market resolves positively for Atlanta. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these determinations, ensuring that the focus remains strictly on performance within that specific period.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price will move in that direction, potentially offering value compared to sportsbook lines. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Falcons-Saints 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose money if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a market-driven assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the third quarter of the Falcons-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or account for any losses following the official confirmation.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Falcons or the Saints would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching decisions or team strategies could shift market sentiment and alter the price of contracts in this market.