TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 10:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of an upcoming football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints. Each market corresponds to different thresholds for how much one team might win by during that specific quarter, allowing participants to assess varying levels of competitive balance or dominance.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the Saints win by exceeding a certain number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), or if the Falcons win by exceeding another set of thresholds (also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored in the second quarter count toward these outcomes. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and the resolution depends strictly on whether the actual point differential meets or exceeds the specified value for that market.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price here will move accordingly. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, and these discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Falcons-Saints 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process leads to a market-determined price that represents the collective belief of all traders.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second quarter spread of the Falcons-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the market will pay out to traders holding contracts on the winning side. The exact timing of resolution may depend on the official release of game statistics, but it will occur shortly after the conclusion of the second quarter.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Falcons or the Saints would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Additionally, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can influence the price, as can any late-breaking news or analysis regarding team strategies or matchups. Public perception and expert opinions can also play a role.