TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the New Orleans Saints will win the second half of their game against the Atlanta Falcons by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 59.0% probability to the Saints achieving this. The market will resolve based on the final score of the second half (including overtime) of the game originally scheduled for October 5, 2026, as determined by official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves based on the outcome of the full second half, and will be finalized no later than the resolution date of October 6, 2026.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified Pro Football game. Each market has a specific threshold: if the New Orleans Saints win by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 1.5 to 13.5), or if the Atlanta Falcons win by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. The markets are independent, with each threshold representing a distinct outcome.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by analysts aiming to balance action on both sides and ensure a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but remember that each represents a distinct form of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different second-half spreads for the Falcons and Saints. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Buyers believe the spread is more likely than the market currently implies, while sellers believe it’s less likely. This dynamic interaction between traders sets the price, providing a real-time assessment of the expected outcome. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately predict the result.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second-half spread of the Falcons-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the contracts will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the spread. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market. The outcome will be determined by the actual point difference in the second half of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Falcons or Saints would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable conditions for passing or running, could also impact the spread. Unexpected shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, might also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team strategies or coaching decisions could influence trading activity and move the market.