TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the Atlanta Falcons will win the first quarter of their game against the New Orleans Saints by more than 7.5 points. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the result of the first quarter of the game, with the market resolving to Yes if the New Orleans Saints win by more than 10.5 points. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the outcome of the first quarter on or around the resolution date of October 6, 2026.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints exclusively during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger margins like over 10.5 points, for either team’s victory. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins the first quarter by more points than the designated spread. Only points scored in the first quarter count toward resolution, meaning any scoring after this period is irrelevant. The outcomes hinge solely on the relative scoring performance within the first 15 minutes of play, with no consideration for the full-game result or subsequent quarters.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis faster than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on power rankings and expert opinions, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It’s common to see differences emerge, particularly as new information – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – becomes available. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trades depend on correctly predicting the outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the likely first-quarter spread, distinct from static odds offered elsewhere.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-quarter spread of the Falcons-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual spread at the end of the first quarter, providing a clear and unambiguous outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Falcons or the Saints would be a major catalyst. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they affect the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also influence trading activity. Finally, large volume trades themselves can create momentum and move the price, reflecting shifts in collective sentiment.