TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 6:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether either team secures a win by a specific number of goals, providing insight into potential dominance during the game.
The event evaluates various winning margins for Athletic Club Sjdr and Ceara in their professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer match scheduled for November 2, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Athletic Club Sjdr wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding markets resolve to Yes. Similarly, if Ceara wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, their respective markets resolve to Yes. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can take a position in this market, driving the price to reflect their collective view. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market clears at the best available prices. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, and any new information or shifts in sentiment can cause the price to fluctuate. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread result of the Athletic Club vs Ceara match. The platform will verify the final result against official sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the event and its official results as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions for either Athletic Club or Ceara could significantly impact the perceived likelihood of outcomes. Major shifts in public sentiment, reflected in polls or expert analyses, could also drive price movements. Additionally, any updates on weather conditions or field conditions that might affect the game could cause traders to adjust their positions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.