TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 4:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Atalanta and Parma Calcio in Italy's Serie A league. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, with different thresholds defining a successful outcome. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various winning margins in the Atalanta versus Parma Calcio Serie A match scheduled for November 2, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Atalanta winning by more than 2.5 goals, Atalanta winning by more than 1.5 goals, Parma Calcio winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Parma Calcio winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Each market will resolve to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the required goal-differential victory condition. The event explicitly states that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price on Kalshi will move in that direction. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply a different interpretation of the available data. It's common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Atalanta vs Parma match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their forecasts are correct. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the outcome. The current price represents the market's best estimate of the spread at the conclusion of the game.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between Atalanta and Parma at the end of the match. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by recognized sports data providers, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their predictions were accurate shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 3, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Atalanta or Parma would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even controversies surrounding the teams could all contribute to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could also signal shifts in expectations and move the market.