TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines the winner of the first map in an upcoming professional Dota 2 match between two teams. The outcome depends solely on which team secures victory in the initial map of the match, with specific conditions governing resolution if the match or map is altered before completion.
The market resolves based on the result of the first map in the specified Dota 2 match between Astra Invicta and Team Spirit. If Astra Invicta wins map 1, its corresponding market resolves to Yes, and Team Spirit’s market resolves to No, and vice versa for a Team Spirit victory. If the match or specific map is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before play begins, both markets resolve to the fair market price. If a map begins and is later forfeited, the result published by the governing body determines resolution. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of many individuals. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market incentivizes participants to express their true beliefs. However, it’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant trading volume occurs. Over time, as more people participate, this market tends to converge towards a more refined probability assessment of the Astra Invicta vs. Team Spirit match outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. As more traders buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of victory. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity determine the price fluctuations, and traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price differences.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official result of Map 1 in the Astra Invicta vs. Team Spirit match, as declared by the event organizers. The winning team of Map 1 will determine the winning contract in this market. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized and the outcome is officially confirmed.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or unexpected roster changes for either Astra Invicta or Team Spirit could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other matches leading up to the event, or even commentary from prominent analysts, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, substantial trading volume from informed participants could drive price movements, reflecting new information or a change in market expectations regarding the Astra Invicta vs. Team Spirit match.