TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 5:00 PM EST
Predict
This prediction market asks which team will score the first goal in a soccer match between Aston Villa FC and Fenerbahçe SK. The market considers goals scored within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs. A 'Neither' outcome is possible if no goal is scored within that timeframe.
In the upcoming match between Aston Villa FC and Fenerbahçe SK, scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Aston Villa FC" if Aston Villa FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Fenerbahçe SK" if Fenerbahçe SK are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Aston Villa FC and Fenerbahçe SK, scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Aston Villa FC" if Aston Villa FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Fenerbahçe SK" if Fenerbahçe SK are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while prediction markets reflect the collective beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, particularly when incorporating new information quickly. The volume of $256 in this market suggests moderate interest, and comparing these probabilities to sportsbook lines can reveal discrepancies and potentially profitable opportunities. However, it’s crucial to remember that both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict for the Aston Villa vs. Fenerbahçe first-to-score market can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information. Trading volume, currently at 0, is also a key driver; low volume can amplify price swings on either platform. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for setting odds differ between Polymarket and Predict, leading to variations in how information is incorporated into prices. These differences can create arbitrage opportunities for traders who identify and exploit price inconsistencies.