TOTAL VOLUME:
$63.5b
24H VOL:
$343,077,021
24H TRANSACTIONS:
611,059,977
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,502,008,518
600,343
Markets across
14,407
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,267
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Brazilian Série A soccer match between Associação Chapecoense de Futebol and Grêmio FBPA scheduled for March 16, 2026. Markets on Polymarket ask about individual team wins and draws, while Kalshi offers a single omnibus market covering all three possible outcomes (Grêmio win, Chapecoense win, or tie). Resolution is based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms apply identical resolution windows (90 minutes plus stoppage time), identical postponement handling (defer until played), and identical official source hierarchy (CBF primary, credible consensus secondary within 2-hour window).
Primary resolution logic:
CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) official match statistics; credible reporting consensus if CBF data unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match result is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded
- Polymarket: Grêmio win market resolves Yes if Grêmio scores more goals, No otherwise; Chapecoense win market resolves Yes if Chapecoense scores more goals, No otherwise; Draw market resolves Yes if teams are tied after 90+stoppage, No otherwise
- Kalshi: Omnibus market resolves Yes for whichever outcome occurs (Grêmio win, Chapecoense win, or tie)
- If match is postponed, all markets remain open pending completion of the rescheduled match
- If match is canceled with no makeup game: Polymarket team-win markets resolve No, draw market resolves Yes; Kalshi omnibus market resolves Yes
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the rescheduled match is completed. Resolution then follows the standard rules based on the completed match result.
- Match Cancellation Without Makeup: Polymarket: team-win markets (Grêmio, Chapecoense) resolve No; draw market resolves Yes. Kalshi: omnibus market resolves Yes. This asymmetry reflects different market structures but achieves consistent coverage.
- Official Data Delay: If CBF does not publish official statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, resolution may use consensus from credible reporting sources (major sports news outlets, league databases).
- Scope: Extra Time and Penalties Excluded: Resolution is based solely on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If the match goes to extra time or penalties (e.g., in a cup competition), those results are not considered.
Timing:
Resolution occurs within 2 hours after the match concludes (or after the rescheduled match if postponed). If official CBF data is not available within this window, credible reporting consensus is used immediately thereafter.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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