TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between Asociacion Deportiva Tarma and Ucv Moquegua in Peru's Liga 1 league. Bettors can speculate on whether a specific team will win or if the game will end in a tie within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The resolution depends purely on the match result as it concludes in regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the Asociacion Deportiva Tarma versus Ucv Moquegua professional Peru Liga 1 soccer match scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Asociacion Deportiva Tarma, a win for Ucv Moquegua, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team securing a victory within the specified time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following Kalshi's standard procedures. It is important to note that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can express that view through trading activity, potentially causing the prediction market price to diverge. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of information becomes available about team form or injuries.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth – the number of buy and sell orders at various price points – indicates how much volume is available at different probability levels. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient expression of expectations regarding the Tarma vs UCV match.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Asociacion Deportiva Tarma versus Ucv Moquegua match will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Resolution will depend on official sources declaring a winner – or, in the event of a draw, confirming that result. Traders will be able to see the confirmed outcome on Kalshi following the match’s completion and official reporting.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could significantly shift expectations. Match previews from respected sports analysts, weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, and even public sentiment expressed on social media can all contribute to price movements. A surprising result in a related match involving either team could also influence traders’ assessments of their relative strengths, leading to adjustments in the probabilities reflected in this market.