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412,077

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5

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Aruba vs. Anguilla
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Aruba vs. Anguilla?

Volume:
$1,553,608

Aruba

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 8:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aruba

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$272,079
N/A
N/A
$139,018
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Aruba

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,990
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Anguilla

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$711,779
N/A
N/A
$327,973
Settled
No
polymarket

Anguilla

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$495,292
N/A
N/A
$177,517
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Aruba vs. Anguilla)

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Aruba and Anguilla in the CONCACAF Nations League. Currently, the consensus probability of Aruba winning on October 4, 2026 is 100.0%, with Anguilla winning at 0.1%. This aggregation combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on CONCACAF official statistics, with fallback to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 4, 2026 to see if the predicted outcome holds true as the game progresses through 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with similar fallback procedures for data availability and cancellation scenarios.Primary resolution logic: CONCACAF official statistics, with fallback to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the outcome of the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
  • If the match is canceled without a reschedule, the 'Aruba wins' and 'Anguilla wins' markets resolve to 'No', and the 'Draw' market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • Official statistics from CONCACAF are the primary source, with established fallbacks if unavailable.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponement: If the game is postponed, markets remain open until the game is completed.
  • Data Availability: If CONCACAF statistics are unavailable within 2 hours, Flashscore is used; if Flashscore is unavailable, Sofascore is used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
  • Score Revisions: Revisions to officially declared final scores after market resolution will not be considered.
Timing: Resolution will occur within 24 hours of the match's conclusion, or as soon as official statistics are available, with a maximum delay of 24 hours.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026 between Aruba and Anguilla.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the result of the Aruba vs Anguilla professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 4, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A market resolves to Yes if the corresponding team wins the match within this timeframe. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the event rules. The outcome excludes extra time and penalty shootout results. Kalshi clarifies it has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Aruba vs. Anguilla match. Currently, the aggregated view shows a consensus leaning towards a draw, with a combined volume of $1,553,608. This reflects the collective predictions of users on both platforms, offering a real-time assessment of expectations for the match’s result. The dashboard provides a unique perspective, aggregating data from multiple sources to present a comprehensive outlook on this event. We are tracking the market closely as it approaches its resolution date.

Prediction market odds, such as those found for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and the incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to ensure profitability, factoring in a margin, while prediction markets allow participants to directly express their beliefs. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, as the market price reflects the aggregated knowledge of many individuals. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by public betting patterns, creating temporary discrepancies with prediction market prices. The current volume of $1,553,608 suggests growing interest in this event.