TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 04d:18h:29m
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This group forecasts the outcome of a professional English Premier League (EPL) soccer match between Arsenal and Hull City scheduled for November 7, 2026. Markets exist for Arsenal winning, Hull City winning, or the match ending in a draw, all determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
The event resolves based on the result of the Arsenal vs Hull City professional EPL soccer game scheduled for November 7, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Arsenal, a win for Hull City, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The event explicitly covers only the standard match duration, with no consideration for extended play or penalty decisions.
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for November 7, 2026, 15:00 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
This market refers to the Premier League match between Arsenal (ARS) and Hull City (HUL), scheduled for 2026-11-07 15:00 UTC. - ARS: If Arsenal wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - HUL: If Hull City wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both ARS and HUL options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by Premier League. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Prediction market odds, like those found on Kalshi and Opinion, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while prediction markets are driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This market’s odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of individuals, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. Furthermore, prediction markets allow for trading up to the event’s conclusion, whereas sportsbook odds are typically fixed when a bet is placed.
Kalshi and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Kalshi and Opinion may diverge due to variations in trader participation, market design, and information access. Kalshi currently favors Arsenal winning at 85.0%, while Opinion leans toward Hull City winning. These differences can arise from varying liquidity levels on each platform, as well as differing opinions among the user bases. Additionally, the specific rules and fee structures of each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, the resulting prices. The differing volume on each platform—$9,957 total—also contributes to these price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arsenal vs Hull City match as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to the market odds at the time of resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 8, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Arsenal or Hull City would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected changes in team form, managerial decisions, or even weather conditions could also shift the probabilities. Major news events or public endorsements could also sway trader sentiment. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the match outcome is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.