TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:44 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional women's soccer match between two teams in England's top-tier league. The result is determined solely by the standing after the regular 90 minutes of play, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The event covers all possible outcomes of the match including victories for either team or a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Arsenal vs Birmingham City WFC professional English Womens Super League soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Arsenal, a win for Birmingham City WFC, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team winning within the regulation time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regulation, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The resolution strictly considers the result after regular time and does not account for extra time or penalty shootout results.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, reflecting their profit margin. This market, being driven by the collective predictions of traders, can sometimes provide more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds reflect the views of professional oddsmakers and may react quickly to breaking news or injuries, while this market relies on the aggregated wisdom of individual traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Arsenal vs Birmingham City match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price discovery process, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the match's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arsenal vs Birmingham City match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome – an Arsenal win, a Birmingham City win, or a draw – occurred during the scheduled match time. The final result will be used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the Oct 17, 2026 resolution. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Arsenal or Birmingham City would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in team formations or tactical approaches could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, major weather conditions impacting the match venue, or even significant pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators, could all contribute to movement in the market as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.