TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 5:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional Champions League Women's soccer match between Arsenal and Benfica Lisbon. The result is determined solely by the standing after the full 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The market accounts for potential match disruptions by allowing for fair resolution if the game is canceled or significantly rescheduled.
The event resolves based on the result of the Arsenal vs Benfica Lisbon professional Champions League Women's soccer match originally scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Arsenal wins the match within this timeframe, the 'Arsenal' market resolves to Yes. If Benfica Lisbon secures the victory under the same conditions, the 'Benfica Lisbon' market resolves to Yes. Should the match conclude in a tie after the specified duration, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. In the event the game is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the defined rules. The markets are independent of any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to incorporate a profit margin and account for public betting patterns, which can lead to biases. This market, however, is driven by individuals directly predicting the outcome, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. While sportsbooks may initially have different lines, they often adjust closer to prediction market prices as the event nears, demonstrating the predictive power of this type of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to represent a consensus forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are influenced by news, team form, and any other information that traders believe impacts the likelihood of a particular result in the Arsenal vs Benfica match. The current market reflects the aggregated wisdom of those actively trading.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Arsenal vs Benfica match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome – a win for Arsenal, a win for Benfica, or a draw – is the correct result based on the final score. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled according to their positions in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Arsenal or Benfica would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, such as unexpected wins or losses in preceding matches, could also shift market sentiment. Even external factors, like weather conditions on the day of the match, or significant tactical announcements from either manager, could influence trading activity. Major news events or announcements related to either team could also move this market considerably before Oct 28, 2026.