TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 6:08 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market group concerns the outcome of the second half of a UEFA Champions League match between Arsenal FC and Lille OSC. Participants are predicting which team will win the second half, or if the second half will end in a draw, based on goals scored during regular play plus stoppage time.
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Lille OSC, scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC score more goals than Lille OSC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Arsenal FC and Lille OSC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Lille OSC" if Lille OSC score more goals than Arsenal FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Lille OSC, scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC score more goals than Lille OSC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Arsenal FC and Lille OSC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Lille OSC" if Lille OSC score more goals than Arsenal FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, as reflected in this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. Prediction markets, however, are driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to more efficient price discovery, particularly as more information becomes available. While sportsbooks may initially have an edge, prediction markets often converge towards a more accurate probability as the event approaches and volume increases.
Prices for this market may differ between Polymarket and Predict due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk appetite, which can influence price discovery. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing levels of liquidity and trading volume on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies. The way each platform handles fees and margin requirements can also play a role. Finally, differing interpretations of available information and news related to the Arsenal versus Lille match can lead to divergent opinions and, consequently, price variations between Polymarket and Predict.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Arsenal FC or Lille OSC would likely shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in team formations or tactical approaches could also influence trader sentiment. In-match events, such as early goals, red cards, or penalties, would have an immediate effect on the odds. Broader football news and analysis, as well as significant betting activity on Polymarket or Predict, could also contribute to price movements in this market.