TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:53 AM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the second half of a Premier League football (soccer) match between Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC. Participants are predicting which team will score more goals in the second half, or if the two teams will score the same number of goals (a draw).
In the upcoming Premier League game between Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC score more goals than Leeds United FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Leeds United FC" if Leeds United FC score more goals than Arsenal FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming Premier League game between Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC score more goals than Leeds United FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Leeds United FC" if Leeds United FC score more goals than Arsenal FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from expert opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and react to news faster than sportsbooks, resulting in odds that diverge from those offered elsewhere.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different user bases and trading dynamics on Polymarket and Predict can lead to price discrepancies for the Arsenal vs. Leeds second half. Polymarket currently favors one outcome, while Predict leans toward another. This can be due to varying levels of information access, risk appetite among traders, or simply differing interpretations of the same data. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform play a role; lower volume can amplify price swings in response to individual trades. These factors contribute to the observed differences in pricing across the two venues.