TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 10:17 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "Leeds United FC" if Leeds United FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If neither team scores in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time), this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to goals scored within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "Leeds United FC" if Leeds United FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If neither team scores in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time), this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to goals scored within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about the likelihood of each team scoring first. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook has mispriced the probability, you’ll often see the prediction market odds diverge. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbooks, especially when there's strong public interest and a lot of trading activity in this market.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether Arsenal or Leeds will score first in the first half. As more shares are bought for one outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that outcome occurring, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the result. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of all traders participating in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team, Arsenal or Leeds United, scores the first goal in the first half of the match. The official match records will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning outcome. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized on Polymarket.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Arsenal or Leeds could significantly shift expectations. Tactical announcements from either manager about their starting lineups or game plans could also impact trading activity. Even pre-match analysis from reputable sports commentators or unexpected weather conditions could cause traders to reassess their positions. A late surge in betting activity favoring one team would also likely move the market before it resolves.