TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 11:58 AM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional Ettan soccer match between Arlanda and Jarfalla, scheduled for October 17, 2026. Bettors can speculate on whether Arlanda, Jarfalla, or neither (a tie) will claim victory after the full 90 minutes plus any stoppage time. The resolution hinges solely on the result within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Arlanda vs Jarfalla professional Ettan soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome applies to the specific market corresponding to the winning team or a tied result within this timeframe. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell, theoretically resulting in more efficient price discovery. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market evolves as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid and ask for contracts representing the possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their valuations based on news, analysis, and their own insights, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arlanda vs Jarfalla match, as reported by the governing body or official sources for the competition. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor official announcements as the event date approaches to stay informed about any potential changes or updates.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding team form, player injuries, or changes in coaching staff could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in related matches, or even broader trends in the competition, might also cause shifts in the odds. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also play a role, though this market is ultimately driven by trading activity. Major announcements related to the event, such as venue changes or schedule adjustments, would also be key catalysts.