TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 10:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Texas A&M will win their college football game against Arkansas by more than 13.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Texas A&M winning by over 13.5 points, with resolution determined by the outcome of the Arkansas vs Texas A&M game originally scheduled for October 3, 2026. Participants should closely watch the game itself on October 3, 2026, as the final score will dictate whether Texas A&M exceeds the 13.5-point spread and resolve the market to ‘Yes’.
The event consists of multiple markets, each corresponding to a specific point-spread threshold for the Arkansas vs Texas A&M college football game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the winning team exceeds the specified point differential. For Texas A&M markets (Rules 1-23), the threshold ranges from over 35.5 points down to over 1.5 points. For Arkansas markets (Rules 24-32), the threshold ranges from over 1.5 points up to over 10.5 points. All markets share consistent secondary rules: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, it remains active and resolves based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and analysis. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities on Kalshi diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed bettors who identify discrepancies between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event approaches. The current market depth provides insight into the level of conviction behind different potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Arkansas versus Texas A&M football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the governing body of college football, ensuring an objective and widely accepted determination of the winning side and the final margin of victory. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the settled outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Arkansas or Texas A&M would likely cause shifts in the spread. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, or even significant news about team morale could all move the market. Unexpected announcements regarding starting quarterbacks or other pivotal players would also be major catalysts. Public perception shifts, driven by media coverage and expert analysis, can also contribute to changes in trading activity and ultimately, the price of contracts in this market.