TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the third quarter in an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that either team must achieve to satisfy the condition. The resolution depends solely on the points scored during the third quarter, regardless of the overall game result.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the third quarter of the Arkansas vs Texas A&M college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the specified team must win the third quarter by the exact margin stated in the market's title. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these outcomes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain open and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing these odds can provide a broader perspective on the potential outcome and highlight where public opinion diverges from professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all traders on Kalshi regarding the 3rd quarter spread in the Arkansas vs Texas A&M game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the Arkansas vs Texas A&M game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official game statistics, and the market will settle based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges defined by the contracts available on Kalshi. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arkansas or Texas A&M team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the perceived advantage of either team. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated betting trends, could also lead to fluctuations in the price of contracts in this market.