TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in a college football game between Arkansas State and Southern Miss. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on whether the winning team will exceed that margin.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Arkansas State vs Southern Miss college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. For markets where Arkansas State wins, resolution occurs if their victory margin exceeds the specified point threshold. For markets where Southern Miss wins, resolution occurs if their victory margin exceeds the specified point threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell contracts. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move to reflect that belief. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds, especially as more information becomes available closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Arkansas St. vs Southern Miss game. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread being the final result. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades earn them money, and inaccurate predictions result in losses. This dynamic creates a market-driven forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Arkansas St. vs Southern Miss game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing spreads will forfeit their investment. The precise payout amount is determined by the contract price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arkansas St. or Southern Miss teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Additionally, major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or betting trends, could lead to increased trading volume and price adjustments. Unexpected coaching decisions or team strategy announcements could also play a role.