TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, enabling detailed analysis of potential outcomes.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Arkansas St. vs Louisiana college football game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. If Louisiana wins by a margin exceeding the specified threshold in any 'Louisiana wins by over X points' market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. Conversely, if Arkansas St. wins by more than the specified margin in any 'Arkansas St. wins by over X points' market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. For games postponed but starting within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve per the actual result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to align with sportsbook odds, as both reflect public and informed opinion about the likely outcome of an event. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of liquidity and the types of participants involved. Sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting volume and risk management, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs. Significant discrepancies can sometimes present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders can profit by exploiting price differences between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Arkansas vs Louisiana spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust to changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final, official point spread of the Arkansas vs Louisiana game as determined by official sports data providers. The market will settle to 100 if the favored team covers the spread, and to 0 if the underdog wins or covers. Any adjustments to the final score will be reflected in the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the Arkansas vs Louisiana spread market. News regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement, as would any major changes in team performance or coaching strategies. Unexpected weather conditions at the game location could also impact the spread. Public perception, influenced by expert analysis and media coverage, can also shift the market as more information becomes available. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a change in sentiment.