TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score more points in the final quarter of an upcoming college football game between Arizona and Texas Tech. It provides a way to speculate on the momentum and performance of each team specifically in the last period of play, excluding any overtime periods. The outcome depends solely on 4th quarter scoring, making it a test of late-game strategies and stamina.
If Texas Tech wins the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Arizona vs Texas Tech college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arizona wins the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Arizona vs Texas Tech college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither team wins the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Arizona vs Texas Tech college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individuals willing to put their money where their mouth is. Frequently, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts, as they incentivize participants to be well-informed. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, but both offer insight into potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a specific outcome. As more people buy contracts for a particular team to win the fourth quarter, the price of those contracts increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven entirely by supply and demand, meaning the market price is a direct expression of what traders are willing to pay for the potential payout if their prediction is correct. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly liquid and informative market.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the fourth quarter will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final outcome and the contracts they hold in this market. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the results.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance during the earlier quarters of the game will likely have a significant impact, as will live game statistics and momentum swings. Major upsets in other related games could also indirectly affect the market, as they might influence overall perceptions of team strength. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.