TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:54 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether a specific team will achieve a designated point differential advantage exclusively in the final quarter of a college football game. The outcomes hinge solely on performance metrics during the last 15 minutes of regulation time, ignoring any earlier or overtime scoring.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the fourth quarter of regulation play in the Arizona vs Texas Tech college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026, with overtime points excluded from consideration. For markets where Texas Tech is the favored team, resolution occurs if Texas Tech wins the fourth quarter by more than the specified point margin (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). Conversely, for markets where Arizona is the favored team, resolution occurs if Arizona wins the fourth quarter by more than the specified point margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve based on the official final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome, or that one venue has incorporated information more quickly than the other. It’s a good practice to compare both to gain a broader perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The more a particular spread is traded, the more confidence the market has in that outcome, and the price will adjust accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arizona vs Texas Tech game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. All contracts will be settled based on whether the actual fourth-quarter point spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contract. Traders will then receive or pay out the difference based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Texas Tech teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact the market. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first three quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing or a surprising defensive strategy, could shift trader sentiment and cause the spread to adjust. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators can also play a role.