TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 2:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between Arizona and Texas Tech specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled college football game. It focuses on how much one team outscores the other during that single quarter, reflecting potential momentum shifts or strategic adjustments made during halftime.
The event resolves based on the point differential in the third quarter of the Arizona vs Texas Tech college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Markets cover various thresholds for Texas Tech or Arizona winning the third quarter by specific margins, ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward resolution. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds closely mirror those found at sportsbooks, but subtle differences can emerge. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will diverge. This can sometimes lead to opportunities for informed traders to exploit discrepancies. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and both are subject to change as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the actual 3rd quarter spread will be above or below the listed value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s assessment. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi regarding the likely spread.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final 3rd quarter spread of the Arizona vs Texas Tech game will be used to determine whether the ‘over’ or ‘under’ contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding the winning contracts will receive a payout of 100 minus the commission paid when they purchased the contract.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Texas Tech teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also shift trader sentiment. Late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could also play a role. Even public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can influence trading activity and therefore the price on Kalshi.