TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific NFL game between Arizona and New York. Participants can bet on whether each player will reach certain reception thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced betting on individual player contributions within the game.
These markets resolve based on the total number of receptions recorded by specified players during the Arizona vs New York G Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market functions as a scalar betting opportunity where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the named player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size and constrained between $0.00 and $1.00. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60; eleven receptions would result in a Yes payout of $0.55 and a No payout of $0.45; zero receptions would yield a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All markets are independent, and each resolves separately according to the performance of the respective player.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the available buy and sell orders at various price points, indicating the level of demand and supply for each outcome. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for players in the Arizona vs New York game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official statistics from the game will serve as the basis for verifying the results. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected performance in previous games or updated player statistics could also drive price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi can indicate informed activity and potentially signal a change in market sentiment. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the market is evolving and identifying potential trading opportunities.