TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game, with payouts scaling based on performance thresholds. Each player's market offers different returns depending on how many receptions they make during the match.
Each market operates as a scalar prediction mechanism focused on the number of receptions achieved by individual players in the specified football game. For every player market, Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula for Yes contracts is calculated as floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout. All Yes payouts are limited to a maximum of $1.00, and each market resolves to Yes based on the actual reception count compared against the schedule. The structure ensures that payouts increase non-linearly with performance, rewarding higher reception totals with progressively larger returns.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likely number of receptions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources or analytical approaches. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information becomes available, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional odds.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for players in the Arizona vs New York game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any relevant data used for verification on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the Arizona vs New York receptions market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant catalysts, as they directly impact the potential for receptions. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing game strategies and thus reception totals. Unexpected starting lineup changes or shifts in offensive play-calling could also cause the market to react. Any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could also move this market before Oct 4, 2026.