TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a rushing distance beyond a set threshold during an upcoming football game. Each participant's performance is evaluated independently, focusing on their longest single rush. The outcome depends on whether any of the designated players exceed their respective yardage benchmarks.
The event evaluates multiple individual player performances within a single football game to determine if any of the specified athletes records a longest rush exceeding their predetermined yardage thresholds. For each player market, the outcome is 'Yes' if that player achieves a rush longer than the stated threshold during the game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the longest rush actually recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one player’s market does not affect the others. The governing body for the game is the National Football League, though the platform explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with it. Trademarks and brand names referenced belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information beyond what is captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and attempt to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to differences in probabilities, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially closer to the event date, as traders on Kalshi incorporate a wider range of factors into their assessments than those used by sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt during the game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for determining the longest rush, and the resolution will reflect that verified data. Any ties will be handled according to the platform’s rules, which are available on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. News regarding player injuries to key running backs would be a major catalyst, as it would alter the perceived likelihood of each player participating and their potential for a long run. Game-day weather conditions, such as a muddy or slippery field, could also impact running strategies and therefore the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about team play-calling tendencies or specific game plans could shift trader sentiment and lead to price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts.