TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It highlights the defensive challenges faced by the quarterbacks and the potential impact of their mistakes on the game's outcome.
The event centers on determining whether designated quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Jacoby Brissett, record a specified number of passing interceptions during the Arizona vs New York G Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular quarterback and a minimum threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+). If either quarterback meets or exceeds their respective threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. A key secondary rule states that if a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolution is based solely on the actual number of passing interceptions recorded during the game. These rules ensure that markets are resolved accurately according to the quarterbacks' in-game performance, accounting for scenarios where a player might be present but not actively participating.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of its corresponding contract increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, providing a forward-looking assessment of the event's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final statistics from the Arizona versus New York game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of passing interceptions officially recorded during the game will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will reflect the official game data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as an injury report, could significantly shift the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect passing accuracy, might also impact trading. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or player matchups could also cause movement. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from college football experts could influence traders’ perceptions and lead to price adjustments in this market.