TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific NFL game, focusing on whether certain athletes achieve predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense units during the full duration of the Arizona vs New York Giants NFL game scheduled for October 4, 2026, including any overtime periods. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories such as passing/rushing/receiving yards, touchdowns, interceptions, kicks, sacks, defensive plays, and special teams contributions. Each market has a specific threshold; if the designated player or defense surpasses their respective point mark, the market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise to 'No.' Players who do not participate or receive no fantasy-point value are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a large amount of trading occurs, offering opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher fantasy point total, the price for those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants regarding the Arizona vs New York game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy point totals from the Arizona vs New York game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the relevant sports data providers. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will forfeit their stake. It's important to monitor official sources for the final results to understand the market's resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes in team lineups for either the Arizona or New York teams would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected weather conditions that could affect the game’s scoring environment could also move the market. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about player performance or strategic adjustments could shift trader sentiment and alter the price of contracts in this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for those looking to trade.