TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Arizona and Los Angeles. Payouts are determined by how many receiving yards each player accumulates during the match, with higher yardage leading to greater returns for 'Yes' contracts.
Each market evaluates player receiving yards in the specified game, with payouts structured to reward higher performance. For every 10-yard increment achieved by a player, the 'Yes' contract payout increases according to a predefined schedule, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The 'No' contract pays the difference between $1.00 and the 'Yes' payout. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling based on yards achieved, ensuring non-linear growth in returns as yardage increases. Negative yardage results in zero payout for 'Yes' contracts. All markets resolve to 'Yes' if the specified conditions are met, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by experts and influenced by factors like house bias. Sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting action, but this market allows anyone to express their view, potentially leading to different probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors a particular outcome. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can be a useful exercise in assessing where the collective intelligence differs from professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous, order-book style exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential receiving yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific yardage range, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yard totals for the Arizona vs Los Angeles game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics from the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will reflect the total receiving yards achieved by all eligible receivers from both teams during the official game timeframe. It’s important to note that any adjustments or corrections to the official game statistics will be reflected in the final resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on either team are significant catalysts, as they directly impact the potential for receiving yards. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also affect passing game strategies and, consequently, receiving yard totals. Unexpected starting quarterback changes or shifts in defensive schemes could also move the market. Finally, any significant news or analysis regarding the matchup, even outside of direct player availability, could influence trader sentiment and impact volume.