TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:21 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of passing touchdowns achieved by specific quarterbacks in a football game between Arizona and Los Angeles. The outcomes depend on whether the designated player reaches various thresholds of scoring passes during the match.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required passing touchdowns threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full-game passing touchdowns, including any overtime periods. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability in this market and sportsbook odds, it could signal an opportunity for informed traders. However, it’s important to remember that both represent different forms of forecasting, with prediction markets aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and sportsbooks relying on expert analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts representing different numbers of passing touchdowns. Traders actively bid and ask, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective belief of the traders regarding the likelihood of each outcome. Higher prices indicate greater confidence in a particular number of touchdowns being scored, while lower prices suggest less confidence. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Arizona versus Los Angeles game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the outcome is officially verified.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or personnel changes might also shift expectations. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could quickly alter the price, reflecting new information or insights.